today is officially the forth day since the new protest wave started, at least 4 dead, 2 police/basij and two people that attempted to get weapons from a police station stash.
今天是新一轮抗议浪潮开始的第四天，至少有 4 人死亡，其中 2 人是警察/民兵，另外 2 人试图从警察局的武器库中获取武器。

It essentially boils down to how soviet union was collapsing, Iran has been plagued with neoliberalism, it's own government defying its own, I will explain it from multiple angles.
归根结底，这和苏联解体、伊朗深受新自由主义困扰、政府自相矛盾等问题有关，我将从多个角度进行解释。

1. Economy.   经济。

The process started at around the same time Iran stock exchange opened around 2006, Iran attempted to create a "healthy private sector", and started its privatisation process, companies were sold at a fraction of the price, it created the newly class oligarch which were mostly inside Government was created.
这一过程大约始于2006年伊朗证券交易所开业之时。当时，伊朗试图建立一个“健康的私营部门”，并开始了私有化进程。公司以极低的价格出售，由此催生了新的寡头阶层，他们大多身居政府要职。

This oligarchy had supported the reformist party, sponsored the Iranian cinema and newspaper, send their kids to Harward and they grow in power.
这个寡头集团支持改革派政党，赞助伊朗电影和报纸，送他们的孩子去哈佛大学读书，他们的权力也因此不断壮大。

The capitalists only grow in power as they pushed the narrative of opening up Iran economy to the "global market", and even attempted a coup in 2009, but quickly denied their involvement and distanced themselves away from Mousavi, which claimed the election was stolen, (it most probably wasn't).
随着资本家们不断鼓吹伊朗经济向“全球市场”开放，他们的权力也日益壮大。他们甚至在 2009 年发动政变，但很快否认参与其中，并与声称选举被窃取的穆萨维划清界限（这很可能并非事实）。

In 2012 Rouhanni came, and with massive public pressure, they signed 2015 JCPOA, which was a trap deal only designed to stole Iranian wealth. Around 130 billion was "frozen" by western banks.
2012 年鲁哈尼上台后，在巨大的公众压力下，伊朗于 2015 年签署了伊核协议（JCPOA），这是一项旨在窃取伊朗财富的陷阱协议。约 1300 亿美元的伊朗财富被西方银行“冻结”。

In only two years the deal was made, Iranian government had to surrender their method of bypassing sanction, and had their money in delay from SWIFT system, none of the investors actually came, the price of Oil crashed, resulted by the appeant peace in ME.
仅仅两年后，协议达成，伊朗政府不得不放弃绕过制裁的方法，资金从 SWIFT 系统延迟到账，没有一个投资者真正到账，石油价格暴跌，这是中东表面上和平的结果。

Donald came and The oligarchy pushed for more privatisation, even pushing the narrative That Iranian workers need way less wage by dollar, debating Iran needs to have a cheap labour less than 100$ to attract investment from the international world.
唐纳德上台后，寡头们推动了更多的私有化，甚至散布伊朗工人需要大幅降低工资的说法，声称伊朗需要低于100美元的廉价劳动力才能吸引国际投资。

The oligarchy isn't directly supported by the west, but it acts as one, they rejected Chinese and Russian investment during rouhanni, China was promising 500 billions and they believed they could get a better from the Europeans lol.
虽然寡头政治集团没有直接得到西方的支持，但他们的行为却像西方一样。在娄翰尼时期，他们拒绝了中国和俄罗斯的投资，当时中国承诺投资5000亿美元，而他们却认为可以从欧洲人那里得到更好的投资，真是可笑。

The European kept promising to somehow stand to donnie and they didn't do shit, it was by design to keep Iran from going to the nuclear option.
欧洲人一直承诺会以某种方式支持唐尼，但他们什么也没做，这是有意为之，目的是阻止伊朗诉诸核武器。

Raisi wasn't much better, he had more pivot to Russia and China, but his entire cabinet was the same oligarchy.
莱希也好不到哪里去，他更加倾向于俄罗斯和中国，但他的整个内阁仍然是同样的寡头政治集团。

The oligarchy which is mostly from the government itself, had bought their way into all sectors of Iran, from military to academic.
这个主要由政府官员组成的寡头集团，已经通过金钱渗透到伊朗的各个领域，从军事到学术界。

Their entire objective is to make a economic coup, destroying Iran in hopes of the west accepting them, extremely similar to the end of soviet times.
他们的全部目标是发动一场经济政变，摧毁伊朗，希望西方能够接受他们，这与苏联解体时的情况极其相似。

2. Culture.   2. 文化。

As economic situation for the working class got worst from the "economic surgery", pinochet style.
由于皮诺切特式的“经济手术”，工人阶级的经济状况进一步恶化。

The culture was effected and grow distant from the government, boycotting elections. As Iranian were introduced to Internet, a quick shift happened, entire families going from a religious and conservative to secular, this process was more noticeable in big cities such as tehran, even the rural population had seen a big shift, people partying, alachol and weed (I'm high af right now), and a sex revolution in Iranian Gen Z.
文化受到影响，民众与政府渐行渐远，抵制选举。随着伊朗人接触互联网，社会迅速转变，许多家庭从宗教保守转向世俗化，这一过程在德黑兰等大城市尤为明显，就连农村人口也经历了巨大变化，人们开始聚会、饮酒、吸食大麻（我现在嗨翻了），伊朗 Z 世代掀起了一场性革命。

The change was too sudden for the slow Iranian government to accept, for the most of the time people agreed with the government, were involved in it and were the once inforcing it, but the Iranian system had a lot of pressure from all sides, secularism and changing laws during an economic war with US was enough pressure, and it feared losing the last bit of legitimacy it had with the rural or religious population, estimated to between 30 to 40%.
对于反应迟缓的伊朗政府来说，这种变化太过突然，难以接受。大多数时候，人民都认同政府，参与其中，并且曾经是政府的支持者。但是，伊朗体制面临着来自各方的巨大压力，世俗主义以及在与美国的经济战期间修改法律本身就足以构成压力。伊朗政府担心失去其在农村或宗教人口中仅存的一点合法性，据估计，这部分人口占伊朗总人口的 30% 到 40%。

3. Military   3. 军事

Iran saw a big bombarded campaign started by Israel and US, by prepping yet another trap and giving Iran a flase since of security, Iranian did managed to put heavy damage, but once Israel saw its interceptors ran out they quickly pushed for peace and the Iranian government accepted it just as they could inflect heavy damage.
伊朗遭到以色列和美国发起的大规模轰炸，他们设下另一个陷阱，给伊朗一种虚假的安全感。伊朗确实成功地造成了重大损失，但当以色列发现其拦截器耗尽时，他们迅速推动和平，而伊朗政府在能够造成重大损失之际接受了和平。

The response to US was weak and coordinate, People saw at as weakness, but most saw Iranian ballastic missles as a great deterance, Iran also had prepared for long term war with US, many of its assets being short range missles that couldn't reach Israel, so their stash was at critical supply as well, and couldn't go all in israel due to being surrendered from multiple sides.
伊朗对美国的反应软弱且协调一致，人们认为这是软弱的表现，但大多数人认为伊朗的弹道导弹是一种强大的威慑力量。伊朗也为与美国进行长期战争做好了准备，其许多资产都是无法打到以色列的短程导弹，因此其导弹储备也处于关键供应状态，而且由于受到多方交战，伊朗无法全力进攻以色列。

4. Supreme leader, Khameni, where does he fit in?
4. 最高领袖哈梅尼，他扮演什么角色？

Khameni, was mostly against the decision to trust the west, he also put most of his political capital into Iranian missles and nuclear program, in 2015 a draft of JCPOA was handed to him which didn't have the snapback article in it, Snapback was suggested by the former Iranian foerign minister zarif at last days of the deal prior to being signed.
哈梅尼大多反对信任西方的决定，他还将大部分政治资本投入到伊朗导弹和核计划中。2015 年，一份 JCPOA 草案交给了他，其中没有“快速恢复制裁”条款。“快速恢复制裁”是伊朗前外交部长扎里夫在协议签署前的最后几天提出的建议。

Khameni isn't in charge of the oconomy, but he controls a large part of the military, the fact is the entire system is corrupted and even Khameni supported privatisation and open markets.
哈梅尼虽然不掌管经济，但他控制着军队的大部分力量。事实上，整个体制都腐败不堪，甚至哈梅尼本人也支持私有化和开放市场。

However most of the blame for the worsening economic situation and devaluing the currency went to Khameni.
然而，经济形势恶化和货币贬值的大部分责任都归咎于哈梅尼。

5. Protests, foerign agents or people? A mix of both.
5. 抗议活动、外国势力还是民众？两者兼而有之。

People are no doubly furious about the economic situation, for the past couple of years, Wages has only increased by 20% a year while inflation is at minimum 50%.
人们对当前的经济形势感到更加愤怒，过去几年里，工资每年只增长了 20%，而通货膨胀率至少为 50%。

The new currency devaluing happened and some people have snapped, the reason being that Iranian companies aren't bringing their dollar back to the central bank, they sell it at the open market for twice the price the central bank get them. Many of the money is located in UAE and dubai.
新货币贬值后，一些人反应过度，原因是伊朗公司没有将美元汇回央行，而是以央行收取价格的两倍在公开市场上出售。很多资金都流向了阿联酋和迪拜。

Mossad agents blend in the crowd and attmept to incite violence, in every protest they did, but that doesn't mean people aren't protesting, people are pissed, hungry and humiliated, the minimum wage is now at less than 100$ From it's past 300 dollars.
摩萨德特工混入人群，试图煽动暴力，在他们组织的每一次抗议活动中都是如此，但这并不意味着人们没有抗议，人们感到愤怒、饥饿和屈辱，最低工资现在已经不到 100 美元，而之前是 300 美元以上。

Israel and US will try to steal any Iranian protest and that has put many of our people in a deadlock.
以色列和美国会试图窃取任何伊朗的抗议活动，这使我们许多民众陷入了僵局。

I think strikes will be much more healthier, even now most aren't for revolution, they are for a change, and so far nothing has happened, the country is headed into collapse because of the greed of its own breed capitalists.

我认为罢工会更有益于国家发展，即使现在大多数罢工也不是为了革命，而是为了变革，但到目前为止什么也没发生，这个国家正因为其自身资本家的贪婪而走向崩溃。

来源：http://https://www.reddit.com/r/TrueAnon/comments/1q1dq3r/whats_going_on_in_iran_explained_by_an_iranian/